Thriving Maestro's Paradise

Right now we're waiting to see if Digital Currency Group, DCG, is going to go bankrupt or if Genesis Trading is isolated. DCG is a venture capital company that owns Genesis. If Genesis goes bankrupt, which I think everybody has already priced into the market, then a lot of the lending is gone. For example, people that deposited money into Gemini Earn, that money's gone. All this money just vaporized because people were over levered on other bets and then these bets became worthless, essentially. All this money's gone. Think of it like you have a neighborhood and every house is worth $10,000, and then somebody comes in and borrows a bunch of money and says, "I'm going to offer $100,000 for every house," 10X its value. Then, eventually, the market brings that up to $1 million a house. But the true value is still only $10,000. Sudden people are not buying it for a million and the price drops all the way back down to 50,000. All that money that just got poured in ...

 One of them is China. China has huge protests going on right now with the lockdowns. Honestly, there are two bad options for China. One, they double down on Zero COVID policy. This could get really bad where they're arresting citizens, they're using force, and they’re locking everybody up. Or China can do the opposite, just let everything go and end the “Zero COVID policy” and allow people to just freely roam around. The reason why this is a big deal is, number one, it brings uncertainty, and every time you have uncertainty, you see dips in the market. The second thing is the outcomes are bad. Let's say they just open up and end the “Zero tolerance” policy. Probably China’s hospital systems would get overrun. China has been doing media control saying, "People are getting vaccinated. It's getting better," but overall they're not prepared for this. They're not like all the other countries that opened up allowing everyone to get infected with a milder ve...

 Every week we talk about inflation calming down. This week there is a hint that maybe December’s interest hike might only be a 50 basis point move as opposed to the expected 75 basis point move.  This is why you’ll hear markets “cheer, everything is still going up. They're seeing an end in sight to these interest hikes. This is important because if one can reasonably assume the interest rate peak is going to be in February, then they can start deploying their funds accordingly.