Right now we're waiting to see if Digital Currency Group, DCG, is going to go bankrupt or if Genesis Trading is isolated. DCG is a venture capital company that owns Genesis. If Genesis goes bankrupt, which I think everybody has already priced into the market, then a lot of the lending is gone. For example, people that deposited money into Gemini Earn, that money's gone.
All this money just vaporized because people were over levered on other bets and then these bets became worthless, essentially. All this money's gone. Think of it like you have a neighborhood and every house is worth $10,000, and then somebody comes in and borrows a bunch of money and says, "I'm going to offer $100,000 for every house," 10X its value. Then, eventually, the market brings that up to $1 million a house. But the true value is still only $10,000. Sudden people are not buying it for a million and the price drops all the way back down to 50,000. All that money that just got poured in is just gone.
Some people got away with the $1 million purchases, or sold it for $1 million, for example. But if the market's coming back down, we got to find the price point.
And I think we're starting to see this with crypto prices in a bit, the $1,100 Ethereum/16K Bitcoin seems like a floor because it can't really get much worse.
DCG isolating itself is bullish for the market, meaning the actual Grayscale (the crypto division of DCG) and GBTC - all that stuff we talked about last week - might not be affected if that's the case. There is a play here, which is long GBTC, short Bitcoin. That way, even if the prices remain the same, the discount should decrease and you're going to make money on that GBTC holding relative to your Bitcoin holding. It's a complicated move. I'm not personally doing it. And the discount, obviously, it's also very highly risky if DCG does collapse. But they've hired a restructuring lawyer. They are figuring it out without making bankruptcy an option.
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